Pakistan’s power generation experienced a significant surge in December 2025, reaching an impressive 8,487 GWh. This remarkable figure not only represents the second-highest December output ever recorded but also marks the highest level witnessed since December 2021. According to data compiled by Arif Habib Limited (AHL) from NEPRA, this robust growth underscores the dynamic nature of Pakistan power generation capabilities.
Specifically, the December output showed an impressive 8.8 percent year-on-year increase. Furthermore, it comfortably surpassed NEPRA’s reference level of 7,965 GWh. This strong performance indicates heightened grid demand and an increased contribution from vital thermal and nuclear energy sources, reflecting the nation’s growing energy needs.
Pakistan’s Energy Landscape: Analyzing Key Generation Trends
During the first half of FY26, Pakistan’s total electricity generation reached 67,356 GWh. This figure represents a modest 1.1 percent year-on-year increase compared to the same period last year. Consequently, this indicates broadly stable electricity demand across the country, despite ongoing national efficiency and conservation measures aimed at optimizing energy use.
Shifts in Pakistan Power Generation Mix: Hydel, Coal, and Nuclear
- Hydel Generation Decline: Hydropower output sharply decreased on a monthly basis, primarily due to seasonal factors. It fell from 3,153 GWh in November to 1,534 GWh in December, reducing its overall share in the energy mix to 18.1 percent.
- Offset by Thermal Sources: This decline was significantly offset by a substantial rise in both coal-based and nuclear generation. Imported coal generation, for instance, surged to 860 GWh, which is more than five times higher than the previous year.
- Local Coal Boost: Additionally, local coal output saw a 51 percent year-on-year increase, contributing 1,187 GWh to the national grid.
- Nuclear Dominance: Nuclear power continues to be a cornerstone of Pakistan’s energy supply. It generated 2,126 GWh, thus accounting for a significant 25.1 percent of the total power generated during this period.
Fuel Costs and Future Outlook for Pakistan’s Electricity Sector
RLNG-based generation experienced a 9 percent year-on-year decrease, settling at 1,464 GWh. In contrast, gas-based generation remained largely stable at 951 GWh. Wind and solar generation combined contributed just under 3 percent of the total output, primarily reflecting their limited seasonal availability throughout December.
The average fuel cost for electricity generation increased to PKR 9.16 per unit, marking a 1 percent year-on-year rise. This increment was mainly driven by a higher reliance on thermal generation following the seasonal reduction in hydel output. Month-on-month, fuel costs jumped sharply as hydropower resources receded.
Despite the increase in fuel costs, the combination of higher generation volumes and mix adjustment led to a positive Fuel Cost Adjustment (FCA) of PKR 0.48 per unit. This positive adjustment notably ended three consecutive months of negative FCA, a trend closely monitored by analysts. Therefore, this suggests a more favorable financial outlook for the energy sector.
